Chapter 2021

While we have turned the page to 2021, we have not necessarily started a new book. Rather, we have optimistically moved to a new chapter.  

Managing With a Focus on Policy, Not Party

Policy makes markets,
Politics break markets, and
Politicians have no “say”.

Monthly Recap: August

August was another very strong month for the financial markets.  With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notching new highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished just shy of a new high-water mark.

A Rising Tide Lifts all Boats: How Markets Reached All-time Highs as the Economy Recovered From All-time Lows.

Record unemployment + global economic shutdown = all-time stock market high’s?  That can’t be right, can it?  How could our economy, at least on the exterior, seem like a pile of rubble, yet we continue to see the market soar to new heights?

Monthly Recap: July

July, for all intents and purposes, marked a strong start to the second half of the year for global markets. Stock prices started the month with optimism coming off early COVID vaccine trial results and a significantly-better-than expected June jobs report. 

Monthly Recap : May

For the second straight month, May saw equity (stock) markets around the world continue to rise.  Fixed-income (bond) markets participated in the May rally as well.  So what lies ahead?

Let's go back in time...

Last fall we sent out our annual portfolio review letter discussing some of our thoughts from 2019 and some of our forward-looking expectations for 2020.  Here we are, roughly half a year later and living in a very different world.  Recently, we took some time to re-read that letter and we have a few thoughts that we wanted to share and a few important points we want to reiterate as we look towards the second half of 2020. 

Is 2020 the next 2008?

Soaring unemployment.  Bailouts and stimulus packages.  Panic on Wall Street and Main Street.  As we inch further, week by week, into 2020 we are reminded again of past recessions.  Are we heading towards a 2008 reprise? 

Gambling on stocks?

Recently, I was joking around with a father of three at our latest “socially-distant neighborhood happy hour” (basically yelling from driveway to driveway, up and down the street), that we needed him to organize a family basketball tournament that we could all watch and bet on, when a neighbor from down the street yells up that if I want to bet on something, I should try stocks. 

The Bull and The Bear

Over the past few weeks, we have heard words and phrases that we never thought we would ever have to know.  Idioms like “flatten the curve” and “social distancing” have essentially become part of our daily language.  There has been a high degree of connectivity to what we have seen with the health crisis and what we have seen happening to the overall economy.